Saudi Arabia is bracing for a fiscal gap equivalent to 3.3% of its GDP in 2026, the finance ministry revealed, marking an increase from last year’s projection of 2.9%. In monetary terms, the shortfall amounts to 165 billion riyals ($44 billion).
The kingdom’s 2025 deficit overshot expectations, reaching 245 billion riyals ($65.3 billion), or 5.3% of GDP, far above the 101 billion riyals outlined in last November’s budget.
Looking ahead, total spending for 2026 is set at 1.31 trillion riyals ($349 billion), against revenues of 1.14 trillion riyals ($304 billion).
These figures come as Saudi Arabia pushes forward with its Vision 2030 transformation, a sweeping plan to diversify the economy away from oil dependency while funding massive infrastructure and investment projects.
The finance ministry anticipates real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, largely fueled by non-oil sectors. Analysts surveyed in July forecast GDP growth of 3.8% this year, a sharp rebound from the 1.3% expansion recorded in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF recently raised its 2025 GDP forecast for the kingdom to 3.5%, citing robust government-led projects and OPEC+ production adjustments.
