The Gulf’s debt market is entering another growth phase, with total outstanding bonds and sukuk across the GCC set to climb beyond $1.25 trillion in 2026, according to fresh estimates from Fitch Ratings.
From a base of about $1.1 trillion at the end of 2025, the region’s debt capital market is expected to expand by nearly 14%. The momentum is being fuelled by a mix of softer oil prices, easing interest rates and a steady pipeline of refinancing and development funding needs as Gulf economies continue to diversify.
Fitch points to several forces behind the surge: governments and companies rolling over existing debt, funding budget gaps, backing large-scale projects and tapping capital markets as part of longer-term economic reform strategies.
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions and an uneven global outlook, the GCC market has shown resilience. A key stabiliser has been the rapid rise of Islamic finance. Sukuk now make up more than 40% of all outstanding regional debt — their largest share on record — underscoring their growing role in Gulf funding strategies.
Market access has remained largely intact. Issuers across the region have continued to raise funds without major disruption, even as global markets absorbed a series of shocks over the past year.
Credit quality has also held firm. Around 84% of sukuk rated by Fitch in the GCC sit in the investment-grade category, and roughly 90% of issuers carry a stable outlook. Overall, the region’s outstanding debt stock was about 14% higher at the end of last year compared with the year before, highlighting how quickly Gulf capital markets are deepening.
