In Dubai’s heat-soaked energy arena, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stepped forward with something close to triumph in his voice: a fresh OPEC+ system for judging how much oil each member can truly pump. Not a patchwork fix, he insisted, but a clean-lined mechanism built to steady markets and reward those who actually pour money into production rather than just debate it.
The group’s new system, set to shape baseline production levels from 2027 onward, gives OPEC+ a technical yardstick to size up every member’s maximum capacity. Prince Abdulaziz called it nothing less than “fair” and “transparent,” a methodical recalibration after years of tug-of-war inside the alliance.
“This is the most detailed, technical and transparent pathway we’ve ever built for managing the market ahead,” he said, sounding like someone ticking off a personal milestone. At a Saudi-Russian business forum in Riyadh, he even declared the previous day “one of the most successful” of his career, offering warm gratitude to Moscow for its steadying hand.
Sunday’s OPEC+ gathering — where OPEC nations sat beside their heavyweight partners led by Russia — locked in one more crucial decision: oil output levels will hold steady through the first quarter of 2026.
From January to September 2026, the alliance will run its deep-dive assessment of each member’s maximum capacity, the results of which will dictate the 2027 targets. In other words, the scoreboard is being rebuilt, and everyone will soon see where they truly stand.
Prince Abdulaziz made the stakes clear: those who invest in growth and boost their capabilities will finally see that commitment reflected in their quotas. After years of complaints, friction, and renegotiation — from the UAE’s push for higher limits to African members fighting against cuts — OPEC+ appears to be resetting the field. Angola’s earlier departure over quota battles still hangs in the backdrop as a reminder of how high these tensions can run.
But for now, the Saudi minister is betting that this new, data-heavy production compass will bring order to a famously unruly map of global oil interests — and position OPEC+ ahead of all other producers watching from the sidelines.
