Even with crude exports rattled by the conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, key members of the OPEC+ alliance are leaning toward another measured increase in oil production for July, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Seven heavyweight producers inside the group are expected to meet on June 7 and are likely to back an output rise of roughly 188,000 barrels per day, the sources said. The proposal is still under internal discussion and no final agreement has been sealed.
The move would continue OPEC+’s gradual return of supply to the market after months of restraint. While the alliance kept production unchanged through the opening quarter of 2026, it has shifted gears since April, adding barrels back in stages even as tensions in the Gulf intensified.
The pace of those increases, however, has become more cautious in recent months following the exit of the United Arab Emirates from the producers’ alliance. Analysts say Abu Dhabi’s departure may reduce the bloc’s overall market muscle, though some delegates believe it could make internal negotiations smoother among the remaining members.
The countries expected to participate in the June production talks are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
Despite the planned increase, the war-linked disruption around Hormuz remains a major concern. Several exporters are struggling with interrupted shipments and logistical bottlenecks. The situation is particularly sensitive because the Gulf states affected by the turmoil — notably Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait — are among the few producers still capable of quickly raising output if global markets tighten further.
Internal OPEC figures indicate the alliance’s production slid sharply in recent months. Combined output fell to 33.19 million barrels per day in April from 42.77 million barrels per day in February, with Gulf producers accounting for much of the decline.
Two additional OPEC+ meetings scheduled for the same day are not expected to deliver any broader policy shift, according to the sources.
Meanwhile, the group’s larger production restraint deal — a 2 million barrel-per-day cut first agreed in 2022 — is still expected to remain in force through the end of 2026, despite the UAE no longer being part of the framework.
