The oil colossus of Saudi Arabia is poised to close 2025 with a solid, if slightly softer, fourth quarter.
Analysts at AlJazira Capital expect net profit after minority interest to land at 91.9 billion riyals — roughly $24.5 billion — marking a 5.9% rise from a year earlier. Yet compared to the third quarter, earnings are forecast to dip 5.5%, reflecting a cooling in pricing dynamics.
Strip away one-off adjustments and the quarterly slowdown looks sharper: adjusted net income is seen retreating 9.2% from Q3 levels. The culprit is largely crude. Oil prices are estimated to have slid 7.4% over the quarter. Higher production — up 4.3% or about 400,000 barrels per day — helped cushion the fall, but not enough to fully offset weaker benchmarks.
Revenue Under Pressure
Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at SAR 406.9 billion, down 5.1% year-on-year and 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. Upstream operations are expected to bear the brunt, with revenues falling 7.5% sequentially.
Downstream, however, offers a flicker of resilience. Refining margins have improved, likely lifting segment revenue by about 1% from the previous quarter. Petrochemicals remain a softer patch, with margins still under strain.
A Flat Road into 2026?
Looking ahead, the brokerage sketches a steady but unspectacular 2026. Revenue is projected to edge up just 0.5% year-on-year to around SAR 1.7 trillion. Net income is forecast to hover near SAR 371 billion — essentially flat.
Those estimates hinge on an assumed average oil price of $62.4 per barrel next year, roughly 8% lower than this year’s levels.
Production, meanwhile, is expected to do more of the heavy lifting. Total hydrocarbon output could climb to 13.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, including crude production of 10.1 million barrels per day — a 6.7% annual increase that may help soften the earnings impact of lower prices.
AlJazira Capital maintains an “Overweight” stance on the stock, assigning a target price of SAR 29.6 per share.
The company is scheduled to unveil its full-year 2025 financial results on March 10 — a date investors will be watching closely for signals on dividends, capital spending, and how the kingdom’s energy champion plans to navigate a lower-price environment.
