Saudi Arabia and Russia projected a message of unity at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum as mounting geopolitical conflicts continue to reshape the global energy landscape and tighten oil supplies.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stressed the need for stability across energy markets, arguing that the world cannot afford disruptions at a time when supply chains and production systems are under intense strain.
Speaking during the forum, the minister said global energy security has become inseparable from economic sustainability. He noted that rapid shifts in geopolitical and market conditions have made forecasting increasingly difficult, with assumptions often changing overnight.
The remarks come as OPEC+ faces one of its most challenging periods in recent history. Ongoing conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine have curtailed output from key producers, while damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions to major export routes have intensified supply concerns. The situation has been further complicated by the United Arab Emirates’ departure from OPEC earlier this year, ending nearly six decades of membership.
Despite the uncertainty, relations between Riyadh and Moscow appeared solid during the gathering, underscoring the continued importance of cooperation between the two leading members of the OPEC+ alliance.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged that demand forecasts have become increasingly difficult to predict, saying market uncertainty has grown significantly. However, he maintained that OPEC+ remains capable of responding to major shifts in the global energy sector.
Novak also revealed that Russia’s oil production has declined since the beginning of the year, attributing the drop to unplanned refinery maintenance. The comments marked one of the clearest public acknowledgements by Moscow that output levels have softened in recent months.
The broader market has been rattled by the conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted regional energy infrastructure and severely affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil exports. The resulting supply shock has forced analysts and policymakers alike to revisit assumptions about future market balances.
While some forecasts have become more cautious, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais struck a more optimistic tone. He said the organization continues to anticipate strong growth in oil demand and sees no reason to revise its projections. According to Al Ghais, sustained investment in energy production remains essential to meet future consumption needs.
Even as export constraints have turned many production targets into largely theoretical benchmarks, OPEC+ is still expected to move ahead with another increase in output quotas when key members meet this weekend. Market participants view the planned adjustment as a symbolic demonstration of the group’s commitment to supply management, despite the extraordinary disruptions currently affecting global oil flows.
