Energy titan Saudi Aramco is heading toward a fourth-quarter profit rebound on an annual basis, though momentum appears to have cooled compared with the previous quarter.
Estimates from AlJazira Capital place Aramco’s net profit after minority interest at around 91.9 billion riyals — roughly $24.5 billion — for Q4 2025. That would mark a 5.9% increase from a year earlier, but a 5.5% slip from the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, earnings are seen falling more sharply, down 9.2% sequentially.
The tug-of-war is familiar: oil prices eased, production climbed. Crude benchmarks declined about 7.4% quarter-on-quarter, trimming revenue potential. Yet Aramco pumped more barrels, lifting output by roughly 400,000 barrels per day — a 4.3% quarterly increase — cushioning the blow from softer pricing.
Revenue is projected at 406.9 billion riyals, down 5.1% from a year earlier and 2.7% lower than the prior quarter. The upstream segment is expected to bear the brunt, with revenue forecast to fall 7.5% sequentially. Downstream operations tell a more nuanced story: refining margins improved, likely nudging segment revenue up 1% quarter-on-quarter, though chemicals margins remain under strain.
Looking ahead to 2026, the brokerage sketches a largely steady earnings picture. Revenue is expected to inch up 0.5% year-on-year to around 1.7 trillion riyals, while net income is projected to hover near 371 billion riyals. The outlook assumes an average oil price of $62.4 per barrel — about 8% lower than the previous year.
Production, however, is forecast to expand. Total hydrocarbon output could rise to 13.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including crude production of 10.1 million barrels per day — a 6.7% annual increase — helping offset the drag from lower prices.
AlJazira Capital maintains an “Overweight” call on the stock, setting a target price of 29.6 riyals per share.
Aramco is scheduled to release its full-year 2025 financial results on March 10.
